Transit and Urban Renewal Value Creation
Hedonic Price Modelling Assessment of Sydney’s Key Transit and Transit-Oriented Urban Renewal Investments (2000–2019)
LUTI Consulting have undertaken a comprehensive update to their integrated land use and transport assessment of Sydney’s key transit and transit-oriented urban renewal investments from 2000 to 2019.
The update to the LUTI value creation study includes significant updates to the parameters and model structure presented in the original report released five years ago. It is the biggest land market study ever undertaken for Australia’s largest city and builds on the team’s experience in urban economics and developing willingness to pay models in other cities across Australasia (Perth, South East Queensland, Auckland and Hobart).
LUTI Consulting have made the updated analysis a free downloadable report that provides the public and private sectors an updated view of the evidence base demonstrating how Sydney’s urban land markets have valued government investments in transport infrastructure and decisions around land use and Floor Space Ratio (FSR) allocations, in addition to presenting how they can be applied for economic and financial modelling in future projects. This analysis also supports the renewed interest in the sharing of the value created by government investment in urban infrastructure.
The 2020 update to LUTI Consulting’s hedonic price model for Metropolitan Sydney features the addition of more recent land valuations data up to 2019 and several methodological enhancements. Key enhancements include:
- Controls for park-and-ride at passenger heavy rail stations;
- AM peak passenger heavy rail services;
- Proximity to passenger heavy rail corridors that permit the transport of rail freight;
- The interaction between strata development and FSR; and
- The impact of the Sydney Kingsford Smith Airport aircraft noise.
The land value impacts modelled in this study are critical in assisting public policy maker development of value-sharing strategies that seek to share in the value created by government investments in transport infrastructure to assist in defraying project costs.
This information can also be used in the appraisal of urban renewal benefits and development of integrated transit and land use corridor strategies to ensure maximum utilisation of transport infrastructure investments to help Australian cities grow more sustainably.
Academic publications
Review of Value Capture Frameworks and Opportunities
Dr James McIntosh, Dr Roman Trubka, (LUTI)
Mr Brendan Leary (Corview)
This methodological report has been prepared to describe the value capture modelling processes to be applied to projects in Australian cities. This report provides a high-level discussion of the concepts underlying value creation and sharing, the current funding environment for urban renewal and transport projects in Australia, and some Australian and international examples of their application.
Modeling Housing Typologies for Urban Redevelopment Scenario Planning
Trubka, R. and Glackin, S.
Computers, Environment and Urban Systems – forthcoming 2016
Increasing levels of urbanization, combined with growing populations and a need to manage urban redevelopment more sustainably has prompted the need for new tools for urban regeneration in established urban areas. While significant activity is occurring in the areas of volumetric analysis and 3D visualization, utilising these technologies in the development of urban planning tools requires a data schema for defining precinct objects for performance assessment while simultaneously addressing the complexity and interconnected nature of issues relevant to the urban built environment. This paper presents the outcomes of the research and development of a web-based 3D precinct visualization and assessment system, Envision Scenario Planner (ESP), which uses a library of housing typologies to generate easy-to-use, bottom-up, precinct-scale reports on residential infill. The paper illustrates how, through the specification of a residential precinct object data schema and the provision of a set of housing typologies, end users can quickly, and without domain knowledge, generate visualizations and assessments for a variety of housing scenarios, which allows them to determine fit-for-purpose solutions that address a range of issues relevant to contemporary planners and policy makers.
A web-based 3D visualisation and assessment system for urban precinct scenario modelling
By Roman Trubka, Stepehn Glackin, Oliver Lade and Chris Pettit.
ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing – December 2015
Recent years have seen an increasing number of spatial tools and technologies for enabling better decision-making in the urban environment. They have largely arisen because of the need for cities to be more efficiently planned to accommodate growing populations while mitigating urban sprawl, and also because of innovations in rendering data in 3D being well suited for visualising the urban built environment. In this paper we review a number of systems that are better known and more commonly used in the field of urban planning. We then introduce Envision Scenario Planner (ESP), a web-based 3D precinct geodesign, visualisation and assessment tool, developed using Agile and Co-design methods. We provide a comprehensive account of the tool, beginning with a discussion of its design and development process and concluding with an example use case and a discussion of the lessons learned in its development.
Health, Transport and Urban Planning: Quantifying the Links between Urban Assessment Models and Human Health
Anne Matan, Peter Newman, Roman Trubka, Colin Beattie & Linda Anne Selvey
Urban Policy and Research – February 2015
We developed two simple, effective and consistent methods for predicting human health outcomes from physical activity in a typical urban development at a precinct scale. Considering the two primary transport outputs from an urban assessment model (vehicle kilometres travelled and mode share), we developed two methods using approaches based on the literature linking human health outcomes and transport. The two methods were applied to a case study and generated very similar results, demonstrating how a human health outcome from physical activity rates can be incorporated into an urban planning model and become part of the assessment process for urban development.
The role of urban form and transit in city car dependence: Analysis of 26 global cities from 1960 to 2000
By James McIntosh, Jeff Kenworthy, Roman Trubka and Peter Newman
Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment – December 2014
Car dependence is in decline in most developed cities, but its cause is still unclear as cities struggle with priorities in urban form and transport infrastructure. This paper draws conclusions from analysis of data in 26 cities over the last 40 years of the 20th century. Statistical modelling techniques are applied to urban transport and urban form data, while examining the influence of region, city archetype and individual fixed effects. Structural equation modelling is employed to address causation and understand the direct and indirect effects of selected parameters on per capita vehicle kilometres travelled (VKT). Findings suggest that, while location effects are important, transit service levels and urban density play a significant part in determining urban car use per capita, and causality does flow from these factors towards a city’s levels of private vehicle travel as well as the level of the provision of road capacity.
Tax Increment Financing framework for integrated transit and urban renewal projects in car dependent cities
By James McIntosh, Roman Trubka and Peter Newman
Urban Policy and Research – December 2014
Many car-dependent cities have major transit projects stuck in financial and economic assessment due to inadequate links between land use, transport, and funding. This has left most urban transport networks underfunded and requiring significant government support. During this widening transit funding gap, there has been an international increase in demand on transit systems, which is in part a response to the global peak in car use per capita. This paper demonstrates to transit proponents and practitioners how to facilitate infrastructure projects by optimizing induced and activated land-use change. A five-step framework for assessment is proposed that includes assessing the regional and local legislation and regulations to determine what alternative funding opportunities are available, undertaking accessibility beneficiary analysis, analyzing the project-induced land value uplift, developing an alternative funding strategy to implement integrated land-use and transport planning mechanisms, and preparing a procurement and delivery strategy. The proposed assessment framework enables transit business cases to extend project funding for integrated transit and land-use projects, especially in car-dependent cities. This is demonstrated through a case study of Perth, Western Australia.
A co-design prototyping approach for building a Precinct Planning Tool
C.J. Pettit, S. Glackin, R. Trubka, T. Ngo, O. Lade, P. Newton, and P. Newman
ISPRS Ann. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci. – November 2014
As the world is becoming increasingly urbanized there is a need for more sustainability-oriented planning of our cities. Policy and decision-makers are interested in the use of evidenced based approaches and tools that will support collaborative planning. There are a number of tools in the domain of spatial planning and decision support systems that have been built over the last few decades but the uptake and use of these tools is somewhat limited. In the context of Australia there is significant urban growth occurring across the major cities and a need to provision planners and developers with precinct planning tools to assist in managing infill and the densification of the existing urban fabric in a carbon constrained economy. In this paper we describe the development of a new precinct planning tool known as the Envision Scenario Planner (ESP), which is being applied initially in two cities, Melbourne and Perth to assist in the urban design and planning of Greyfield sites. To set the scene in this paper we firstly provide a brief review of the existing state of play of visualization and modelling tools available to urban planners in Australia. The focus on the paper will be to introduce an iterative co-design prototyping approach for developing a best practice precinct planning support tool (ESP) from an earlier tool known as ENVISION. The first step of the approach is an exposure workshop with experts to refine the proposed tool workflow and its functionality. Subsequent iterations of the prototype are then exposed to larger audiences for validation and testing. In this paper we will describe the process and the preliminary findings in implementing the first phase of this iterative co-design prototype approach.
Can Value Capture work in a car dependent city? Willingness to pay for transit access in Perth, Western Australia Transportation Research
By James McIntosh, Roman Trubka and Peter Newman
Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice – September 2014
This paper investigates the impact of transit on urban land markets in the highly car dependent corridors of Perth with a focus on where new fast rail transit services have recently been built. It determines people’s willingness to pay for transit access within different pedestrian catchments for each of the corridors based on hedonic price modelling using land value data on over 460,000 households. The case study uses cross sectional and panel data hedonic price modelling methodology for the calculation of willingness to pay for transit. It finds that land market increases of up to 40% can be achieved, and is particularly relevant to car dependent cities looking to capture the financial and economic value created to build transit extensions or entirely new systems, thus making a strong case for value capture funding of transit projects into car dependent suburbs and the potential for density increases near stations.
Framework for Land Value Capture from the investment in Transit in Car Dependent Cities
By James McIntosh, Peter Newman and Roman Trubka
Journal of Transport and Land Use – March 2014
Many car-dependent cities have major transit projects stuck in financial and economic assessment due to inadequate links between land use, transport, and funding. This has left most urban transport networks underfunded and requiring significant government support. During this widening transit funding gap, there has been an international increase in demand on transit systems, which is in part a response to the global peak in car use per capita. This paper demonstrates to transit proponents and practitioners how to facilitate infrastructure projects by optimizing induced and activated land-use change. A five-step framework for assessment is proposed that includes assessing the regional and local legislation and regulations to determine what alternative funding opportunities are available, undertaking accessibility beneficiary analysis, analyzing the project-induced land value uplift, developing an alternative funding strategy to implement integrated land-use and transport planning mechanisms, and preparing a procurement and delivery strategy. The proposed assessment framework enables transit business cases to extend project funding for integrated transit and land-use projects, especially in car-dependent cities. This is demonstrated through a case study of Perth, Western Australia.
Why Fast Trains Work: An Assessment of a Fast Regional Rail System in Perth, Australia
By James McIntosh, Peter Newman & Garry Glazebrook
Journal of Transportation Technologies – May 2013
Perth’s new 72 km long Southern Rail System opened in 2007. With a maximum speed of 137 km/hr and an average speed of almost 90 km/hr this system acts more like a new high speed rail than a suburban rail system, which in Australia typically averages around 40 km/hr for an all-stops services. The Southern Rail Line was very controversial when being planned as the urban areas served are not at all typical of those normally provided with rail but instead were highly car dependent and scattered low density land uses. Nevertheless it has been remarkably successful, carrying over 70,000 people per day (five times the patronage on the express buses it replaced) and has reached the patronage levels predicted for 2021 a decade ahead of time. The reasons for this success are analyzed and include well-designed interchanges, careful integration of bus services, the use of integrated ticketing and fares without transfer penalties and, crucially the high speed of the system when compared to competing car based trips. The Southern Rail Line in effect explodes the current paradigm of transfer penalties, exposing this as a myth. The lessons for transport planning in low density cities are significant, and are explored further in the paper.
Greening the Greyfields: Unlocking the Redevelopment Potential of the Middle Suburbs in Australian Cities
Newton, Peter; Newman, Peter; Glackin, Stephen; Trubka, Roman.
Proceedings of World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology – Nov 2012
Pressures for urban redevelopment are intensifying in all large cities. A new logic for urban development is required – green urbanism – that provides a spatial framework for directing population and investment inwards to brownfields and greyfields precincts, rather than outwards to the greenfields. This represents both a major opportunity and a major challenge for city planners in pluralist liberal democracies. However, plans for more compact forms of urban redevelopment are stalling in the face of community resistance. A new paradigm and spatial planning platform is required that will support timely multi-level and multi-actor stakeholder engagement, resulting in the emergence of consensus plans for precinct-level urban regeneration capable of more rapid implementation. Using Melbourne, Australia as a case study, this paper addresses two of the urban intervention challenges – where and how – via the application of a 21st century planning tool ENVISION created for this purpose.
The Costs of Urban Sprawl – Infrastructure and Transportation
Roman Trubka, Peter Newman, and Darren Bilsborough
Environment Design Guide – April 2010
This is one of three companion papers taken from a study that assesses the comparative costs of urban redevelopment with the costs of greenfield development. This paper shows that substantial costs could be saved in infrastructure and transport if urban redevelopment became the focus. The second paper GEN 83: The Costs of Urban Sprawl – Predicting Transport Greenhouse Gases from Urban Form Parameters assesses how these different urban typologies perform with respect to greenhouse gases. The third paper GEN 85: The Costs of Urban Sprawl – Physical Activity Links to Healthcare Costs and Productivity discusses the health costs and productivity losses that can be linked to human inactivity in suburban living. The savings in transport and infrastructure for 1000 dwellings are in the order of $86 million up-front for infrastructure and $250 million for annualised transportation costs over 50 years.
The Costs of Urban Sprawl – Predicting Transport Greenhouse Gases from Urban Form Parameters
Roman Trubka, Peter Newman, and Darren Bilsborough
Environment Design Guide – April 2010
This paper assesses how these different urban typologies perform with respect to greenhouse gases. The redevelopment option in Australian cities is around 4.4 tonnes less greenhouse gas intensive per household per annum than greenfield development. The study shows how greenhouse gases can be calculated for any development based on simple physical planning parameters such as the distance to the CBD (a reflection of distance travelled and a proxy for density) and transit accessibility. Although the actual costs of greenhouse gas are small the significance of this work is that governments will need to demonstrate how they are reducing climate change impacts and thus greenfields developments will find it hard to pass this fundamental criteria of assessment.
The Costs of Urban Sprawl – Physical Activity Links to Healthcare Costs and Productivity
Roman Trubka, Peter Newman, and Darren Bilsborough
Environment Design Guide – April 2010
This paper discusses the health and productivity benefits of active-travel associated with the different urban forms due to levels of density, connectivity, and variety in amenity. It shows healthcare savings related to active forms of travel over a 50-year urban lifetime are quite small at $2.3 million for 1000 dwellings. But if these more walkable developments are pursued then the benefits to employment productivity are large, estimated to have a present value of $34 million. This is a substantial benefit that is comparable in scale to the savings in transport and infrastructure, as well as the social costs of greenhouse gases, and should provide a critical input to urban planning decision-making.
